Sunday, February 7, 2010

is it breakdown or massive shakeout?







After trading on Feb 5, at least in the very short term, we can expect a snapback rally, especially with the bottoming tail on the SPY with massive volume, and a topping tail on the US dollar. A rally back to 110, or 111 on the SPY would not surprise me. But what happens after that depends on price action. If the SPY is able to decisively break 111 to the upside, then I would say that the rally is on... the recent correction would have been a failed breakdown, and the markets will rally violently. If the SPY is not able to break 111 to the upside, then there's a good chance that the SPY will correct to 102 ( where the 200 DMA is, and also symmetry from the two turquoise vertical lines).
Gold will likely see the same trading action as the SPY. It looks like it's forming a huge consolidation bull flag, but at the same time it could correctly back to the high $900s low $1000s , before a resumption of a huge rally. But if it is a failed breakdown, within the next few days, gold has got to decisively break $1100, and then it would be safe to say that we've seen the lows for gold for a while.
So a lot will depend on the next few days. If in a few days, the rally fails at the levels that I mentioned, then it's safe that the correction will continue. If it breaks past the resistance levels I mentioned, then we'll have a massive rally. So it's wait and see now... I can't see past the next few days, and we got to be prepared for anything.

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