Saturday, March 27, 2010

still the same holding pattern. be patient









It has been a rather frustrating market for those who invest based on common sense. Greece is in trouble, Portugal is next, America continues to print money, investors in gold and oil have to suffer through violent swings in price because the US dollar rallies, and yet the US stock market is happily rallying even though the economy is probably on life support.
As much as I'd hate to say it, but being long US stocks has been good. While I'm not saying to buy right now because we are really toppy, it's also not yet a reason to sell either. I would say that this moment in time, it would be safest to be a "skeptical bull". Eg. go long when opportunities present itself, but be ready to alter your views from bullish to bearish almost immediately.
Anyways click on the charts, and look at the comments there. The SPY is toppy now, long overdue for a pullback, but I wouldn't count on one occuring until I see it. GLD looks like it has a head and shoulders formation which is bearish, making a possible move to 103 a logical. But if this head and shoulders formation fails and manages to take up lots of resistance, then I'd say that the gold bull will continue, as it eventually should with all that money printing. GDX looks weak, but even with a correction in the stock market, and gold, will take down GDX, but based on the charts, I wouldn't bet on a steep decline. As always be flexible about oppinions. US dollar, look at the comments. But we've been experiencing a steady non violent rally in the US dollar that has been depressing oil and gold. Once the markets get past Greece and whatever country chooses to default, then the fundamentals of money printing should catch up with USD, making it decline, inflating gold and oil, and leading to a repeat of 2008. Remember that year? The first half of 2008 was an excellent time to be in gold and oil.

No comments:

Post a Comment