shakeouts, fakeouts, and pukeouts

Tommorow is the jobs numbers coming out of the US. What number this is doesn't particularly matter. What only matters is the market's reaction to the numbers. So what's gonna happen? From the short term time frame, it does appear that the markets are correcting with a series of lower highs and lower lows. On a longer term time frame, we had a huge run up on the SPY, and based only on technical analysis 120 on the SPY does not seem unreasonable. Based on fundamentals, the SPY should be trading in the toilet, but it appears that fundamentals don't particularly matter anymore. We'll see what happens... Wall St. media is hyping about how September is a month likely to produce losses based on history. Do you think the big boys will allow that to happen? Really it does not really matter to the big boys as long as they make money. And it doesn't matter to the government either as long as people are happy, which usually means higher stock prices... so does this mean the Crash will come when everyone least expects it? Probably, and based on contrarian views, it would not surprise me that stocks rally for the month of September. But I won't bet one way or the other. My note is just to preach caution and risk management.

Well gold has finally broken out of their symmetrical triangle to the upside, and approaching $1000. I do firmly believe that gold should be valued higher based on fundamentals. But like anything, just a word of caution... everyone expects gold to break the symmetrical triangle, and then to break $1000 to the upside. Do you think the big boys will allow this to happen? Or do you think they will create one last final shakeout to wipe out hope? For those who are in a strong hand where they are having big profits from holding gold, then they can afford to stay long, and they have more time to react to any sudden reversals that might develop. For those who have a weak hand, any sudden reversal will wipe out profits, and possibly lead to losses. The point is to limit losses with disciplined stops, but for now, it does look like gold is finally getting the respect it deserves.

Anyways support/resistance levels are illustrated in the chart, and it would be prudent to take some profits at resistance, and to raise stops to support.