Sunday, September 20, 2009

the week ahead





When people say with certainty that "this will happen", gold will goto X, the SPY will goto Y, they really are just guessing just like everyone else. I can say what is likely going to happen, but what is likely going to happen, does not mean it is going to happen, and once again we have to be flexible with our oppinions.

Anyways, the SPY appears to be building a little bit of a bull flag ( light blue markings), and this would support the continuation of the rally, after all fund managers have got a lot of window dressing to do to prop up their fund values, not to mention the plunge protection team doing their magic. The second piece of evidence of continued rally, is that the US dollar seems to be hitting quite a bit of resistance (see the UUP chart). Although we have to be careful because the gov't is selling more treasuries this week, and will try their best to prop up the dollar.

As for gold, it appears to be sitting on support (with the dollar sitting at resistance). So overall things look bullish for the week, although we must be vigilant for any violent turnarounds, cuz we are in a very overbought market now.

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